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The first section of Group Power reports market trends in three time frames and measures
the overbought/oversold conditions of the market in each of those time frames. This isn't
the old "it feels like it's gone too far, too fast to me," but a rigorous assessment of
market conditions rooted in the group structure. The short-term analysis is centered on a
22-day horizon; the intermediate-term work is centered on a 12-week horizon; and our
long-term perspective looks out six months.
Next, Group Power reports advances, declines, up-volume, and down-volume based on groups
rather than stocks. Think of this section as a report on the basic health of the market.
This data can be used to create the traditional technical market timing tools based on
groups instead of stocks: the advance-decline line, net positive volume, on-balance
volume, etc.
The Group Power Arms Index shows you the daily balance of the market. A reading of
greater than one suggests relatively higher volume in the declining groups, while a
reading of less than one suggests relatively higher volume in the advancing groups.
Over time this series averages near .9 due to the upside bias of the market. If the
advance-decline and up-down volume numbers are the basic data on the health of the
market, then our Arms index is akin to a thermometer. We also present a 10-day open
Arms Index. This is a smoothed version that is useful as a timing tool; large values
mark bottoms and small values denote tops.
Group Power Arms Index = (Advance/Up Volume) / (Decline/Down Volume)
10-day open Arms Index = (10-day average Advance/10-day average Up Volume) / (10-day average Decline/10-day average Down Volume)
Another broad market perspective is provided by the percent of groups over their
averages. 10, 50 and 200-day averages are used. The concept was introduced many
years ago by Abe Cohen of Investors Intelligence fame for stocks and has been relied
upon since by savvy traders. Group Power applies this concept to its proprietary
industry group structure to generate these data series, which can be found nowhere
else. Downturns in these numbers after sustained advances and upturns after sustained
declines often mark changes in trend. When these series are at extremes (over 90,
under 10) they are exceptionally good indicators of the overbought/oversold condition
of the market for their timeframes.
The High-Low Index comes from ChartCraft, the point and figure people. The index is the
number of groups making new highs as percent of all groups. Downturns from high levels
are considered bearish and upturns from low levels are considered bullish.
The High Low Index Logic was created by Norman Fosback. It is based on two figures,
the percent of groups making new highs and the percent of groups making new lows.
The Index is the lesser of those two numbers. The idea is that when significant
numbers of groups simultaneously make new highs and new lows the market is "out of
gear" and vulnerable to a trend change. Values above 5% are significant.
Next is a unique and important feature. The number of new highs and lows for groups
are reported for all groups in three different time frames: a year, six months and
a quarter. These numbers can be very useful for market timing. For example, an
expansion of 13-week new lows after an advance can mean trouble - especially when
confirmed by a reversal in trend indicators. New highs and lows are summarized here;
lists of Early Warnings and of 52-week new highs and lows are provided next. Given
the persistence of trends in the group structure, the new highs/new lows lists can
be of great use to momentum players and trend followers.
Taken as a whole, Group Power's broad market statistics provide superb data for your
market timing decisions. Many timing tools can be derived from the group structure,
including an advance-decline oscillator or a ten-day Arms Index. You'll find that
Group Power's broad market statistics are invaluable sources of information for your
market analysis.
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